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Breakout Live NFL Game Picks for Week 14

December 5, 2018 By George West Follow @breakout_live

George “Cannonball” West picks every NFL Week 14 game by the spread and then assigns a value for the strength of the pick: from 16 down to 1. Lines provided by Westgate SuperBook.

Jaguars at Titans
Spread: Titans (-4 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 6
Cannonball’s Pick: Titans
Titans are 4-1 S/U at home.  Jags are 1-4 S/U away and a short week, travel, and having Cody Kessler at QB will not improve that %.  Jacksonville is also #30 in turnover ratio at -10. Tennessee is 7-3 S/U in the last 10 in this divisional series, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 head to head. Tennessee is good against the # at home, 6-2 ATS in the last 8 played in Music City.

Colts at Texans
Spread: Texans (- 4 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 13
Cannonball’s Pick: Texans
Texans have won 9 straight games, and are 5-1 S/U at home and 5-1 ATS in the last 6. Houston is #7 in turnover ratio at +8. Colts are 2-4 S/U on the road in 2018. Indy is only 3-5-1 ATS in the last 9, and 2-3-1 in the last 6 head to head vs. the Texans in this divisional series.

Jets at Bills
Spread: Bills (-3 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 11
Cannonball’s Pick: Bills
Bills beat the Jets on the road 41-10 on Nov. 18. Bills are 7-3 S/U and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head to head in this divisional series. Jets are 0-6 S/U and 1-5 ATS in their last 6. New York is 0-4 S/U in AFC East games in 2018. Bills cut Kelvin Benjamin during the week for a poor game effort last week; that should send a message to the rest of the Bills that lollygagging will not be accepted.

Patriots at Dolphins
Spread: Patriots (- 7 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 5
Cannonball’s Pick: Dolphins
Home teams in this series are 11-1 S/U and ATS in this AFC East rivalry. The Dolphins have traditionally played the Pats tough in Miami and are 5-1 S/U and ATS at home this season. Pats beat Miami 38-7 in week 4, but that was at Gillette Stadium. Dolphins are 10-4 ATS the last 14 games at Hard Rock Stadium against clubs with over .500 records. Pats are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 played in Miami.

Ravens at Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs (- 7 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 7
Cannonball’s Pick: Ravens
Chiefs looked shaken their first time out without Kareem Hunt and that was against the hapless Raiders.  Now, they face the #1 total D in Baltimore with the Ravens on a 3-game winning streak at the time of year that Andy Reid-coached Chief teams start to fade. The Ravens also lead the league in surrendering the fewest first downs and points allowed on the road at 18.7/game, and leads the league in time of possession, killing the clock with its run game. K.C. is #22 against the run allowing 122 yards/game.

Falcons at Packers
Spread: Packers (-5 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 14
Cannonball’s Pick: Packers
Well, Aaron Rodgers may have gotten his wish in the head coaching situation, and I look for him to take it out on the Falcons #25 Pass D that gives up 263 yards/game. Atlanta is 1-4 S/U and ATS on the road, and the projected game time temp is 25 degrees, which should freeze the normally home-domed dirty birds, ironically while Rodgers burns them.

Panthers at Browns
Spread: Panthers (- 1 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 3
Cannonball’s Pick: Browns
Carolina has lost 4 straight games by an average of 10.5 ppg, are 1-4 ATS in the last 5, and are 1-5 S/U and 1-5 ATS on the road in 2018. This is the 2nd straight roadie for the Panthers. Cleveland is #4 in turnover ratio at +10 and are #1 in turnover ratio at home (+1.5) and 4-2 ATS at home this season. TE Greg Olsen being out of the year is a blow to the already struggling Carolina offense.

Saints at Bucs
Spread: Saints (-8)
Cannonball Strength: 15
Cannonball’s Pick: Saints
Saints will be rested from a 10-day break, which is bad for a Tampa D that gives up 29.6 ppg ( #30). And New Orleans has revenge on their minds from a week 1 48-40 loss to the Bucs at home. Saints are 9-1 ATS in the last 10, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 roadies. Tampa are 3-6-1 ATS and 3-7 S/U in their last 10.

Giants at Redskins
Spread: Giants (-3 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 4
Cannonball’s Pick: Giants
Redskins are in a tough spot having to start Mark Sanchez two weeks off the street, due to injuries to Alex Smith and Colt McCoy. Giants are 5-1 ATS in road games this season. Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 games. Redskins are 1-4 in the last 5. Redskins are 8-17 in the last 25 S/U head to head in this divisional matchup.

Broncos at 49ers
Spread: Broncos (- 5 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 8
Cannonball’s Pick: Broncos
San Francisco has lost 3 in a row, Denver has won 3 in a row. 49ers are the worst at turnover ratio in the NFL at -20 and #29 in points allowed 28.0 ppg. Denver still has playoff dreams, while the 49ers have dreams of a #1 overall draft pick. Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 roadies. SF is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 and 1-9 S/U in their last 10.

Bengals at Chargers
Spread: Chargers (-14)
Cannonball Strength: 2
Cannonball’s Pick: Bengals
All the numbers say Chargers, but the Cannonball rule of not to give over 10 points in an NFL game says take the toothless Bengals, but take it small.

Lions at Cardinals
Spread: Lions (-2 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 9
Cannonball’s Pick: Cardinals
Sucker line here on the Lions AND Detroit is traveling 3 time zones and laying points, so take the Cards. Lions are 1-5 S/U and 1-5 ATS in their last 6. Lions are 0-8 S/U and ATS in their last 8 games against the Cards in the desert. Lions are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 December games.

Eagles at Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys (-3 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 16
Cannonball’s Pick: Cowboys
Dallas just beat the Eagles 27-20 in Philly on Nov. 18. Cowboys are 5-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS at home in Jerry World. Dallas is 2-1 S/U and ATS in this series head to head in the last 3 in this divisional series. Eagles are #26 in turnover ratio at -8. Philly is 3-8 ATS in their last 11. Lots of injuries on the Philly side with T Jason Peters (Q) with a leg injury and 4 CBs in the injury report.

Steelers at Raiders
Spread: Steelers (-10 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 1
Cannonball’s Pick: Raiders
Two Cannonball rules here:  If a team is traveling 3 time zones and laying points, don’t take them. If a team is getting more than 10 points in an NFL game, take them, even if it is the Raiders.

Rams at Bears
Spread: Rams (-3)
Cannonball Strength: 8
Cannonball’s Pick: Bears
Bears are 5-1 S/U and ATS at home this season. Game time temp of 27 degrees will freeze the team from Lipstick City. Rams are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8. Bears are 8-4 ATS this breakout season. Bears offense is the NFL leader in net yards/play at home and they should have QB Mitchell Trubisky back.

Vikings at Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks (-3 ½)
Cannonball Strength: 12
Cannonball’s Pick: Seahawks
Seahawks have won 3 straight.  2nd straight game on the road for the Vikings who are 2-4-1 S/U and ATS in their last 7 roadies. Seattle is #2 in turnover ratio at +11. Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8. Seattle is 15-7 S/U in last 22 at home. Seahawks are 4-1 S/U and ATS in their last 5 head to head vs. Minnesota.

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