Reminder: We do Start & Sit a little differently at Breakout Live. Avoiding the obvious starts & sits, we offer advice on the not-so-obvious matchups. You know, the ones that can actually make the difference between winning and losing.
So on Breakout Live Start & Sit, we’ll do two things:
- Give Start advice on mid-to-low tier players who are set up for a blowup week.
- Give Sit advice on mid-to-high tier players who are set up for a letdown.
Read on and reap the rewards a well-deserved win and a playoff berth for JUSTIN TUCKER? I HARDLY KNOW HER! or COPS N’ RODGERS.
Case Keenum: It’s no secret that I’m not a huge fan of Keenum’s, but hey, it’s crunch time. Gotta pull out all the stops in a must-win game, which a lot of you are facing this week as the fantasy playoffs loom. Keenum has been a bad fantasy QB this season, but the Broncos are miraculously 5-6 with a shot at the playoffs, so I think they go for broke. And despite Denver having an excellent run game they can lean on, the matchup is ripe to attack the NFL’s most generous secondary in Cincy early and often.
PPR prediction: 21.3 pts
Dak Prescott: I’m classifying Dak as a Super Stream Start this week because he hasn’t been good enough to start or even be on a lot of fantasy rosters this year. He’s coming off his best game of the year, and yet he’s still only owned in just over half (56%) of Yahoo! leagues – up from just 47% last week. But here’s the thing: since Week 6, Dak has been the 10th-best QB in fantasy. His TD-INT ratio in that span is 13-3, and he’s run for a score in 5 of his last 6. The Saints could look to take Zeke Elliot out of the game and force Dak to beat them through the air, which is a good thing. The Saints give up nearly 286 passing yards/game since they’re always playing with a lead. Odds are you already have a better QB on your roster, but with one week left you throw all reason out the window and do whatever you can to win this week. Dak will help you do it.
PPR prediction: 24.7 pts
Jared Goff: Goff is another guy you’re probably not even considering sitting, but hear me out. This is danger zone time for LA – they’re 10-1 and have little to play for other than competing with New Orleans for the NFC’s #1 seed. Plus, Detroit is really bad. This game could be 28-7 at the half with 3 Gurley run TDs, and suddenly you’re staring at Goff on the sideline for the 2nd half as the Rams try to preserve his health. Good for LA, terrible for your fantasy squad.
PPR Prediction: 15.8 pts
Carson Wentz: Wentz is averaging just over 10 fantasy points in his last two games and now he gets a divisional foe in Primetime. I saw Washington get lit up by Dallas on Thanksgiving just like everyone else, but that defense is still fierce and they won’t cough up 3 rushing TDs to Wentz like they did to Dak.
PPR Prediction: 16.1 pts
LeSean McCoy: When I saw McCoy on the waiver wire in one of my leagues this week, I thought it was a joke. Sure, he’s not what he once was and it’s easy to become an afterthought playing in Buffalo, but he’s still Shady McCoy in many respects. So for the love of God, don’t you dare let him linger on the wire if he’s there in your league. McCoy did struggle a bit last week, but he’s still logged 43 carries in his last 2 games and he’s only one game removed from a bye so he’s likely pretty fresh. Oh, and the Dolphins suck at defending the run, so there’s that. The carries alone represent RB1 usage, so go ahead and ride the Shady wave into your fantasy playoffs this week.
PPR prediction: 22.2 pts
Jalen Richard: This one’s more of a pure PPR play, but hey, PPR’s the best. Here’s a guy who’s owned in just 39% of Yahoo! leagues, and I have no idea why. Sure, he’s not even the RB1 on his own team, but how’s this for a stat: Here are the RBs who’ve caught more passes than Richard this year: McCaffrey, Barkley, (James) White, and Kamara. That’s it. Richard is 5th in the NFL with 53 recs, and that’s crazy for a guy who’s not on the field all that much. Always assume the Raiders will be playing catch-up with the pass, and that’s especially true this week vs. KC. You could do a whole lot worse with your FLEX than a guy who’s seen at least 4 targets in every game he’s played, including games with 6-6-7-8-8-11 looks.
PPR prediction: 16.7 pts
Ezekiel Elliott: A dude who’s gone for 143+ total yards in 3 straight games (with 18 recs and 4 TDs in that span) is pretty much never someone you want to sit, especially one who’s a top-5 play this week for nearly every fantasy expert under the sun. But I hate this matchup for Zeke. Dallas will be playing from behind almost assuredly, forcing the game plan to go pass-heavy. And for all their faults, the Saints’ defense is 3rd best against RBs. Zeke will get his share of attempts and targets for sure, but don’t count on him to carry you to the fantasy playoffs.
PPR prediction: 12.1 pts
Sony Michel: Michel shredded the Jets last week with 145 scrimmage yards and 1 TD, but with James White in the fold and Rex Burkhead back from injury, Michel may find good opportunities hard to come by vs. a stingy Minnesota run D. This game has the feel of an air-it-out affair, and James White remains the top pass-catching option out of the backfield for New England.
PPR prediction: 10.2 pts
David Moore: This is admittedly a reach, but that’s what we do here at Breakout Live – we win the unwinnable. Moore has been inconsistent at best and I swear I’ve seen him drop more balls than he’s caught, but the numbers don’t lie: he’s a top-20 WR since Week 5 and he’s the resident big body in Seattle’s receiving corps. Russell Wilson trusts him and will likely lay a barrage of deep balls against an easily beatable Niners’ secondary.
PPR prediction: 21 pts
Demaryius Thomas: DT had my back last week, so you know I have his this week. I had him as a Start despite almost no usage in his first two games with Houston, and he responded with 2 TDs and nearly 20 ppr points. He only had 4 recs, yes, but Bill O’Brien has said he wants to get Thomas more involved and last week proved it. Cleveland allows the 7th most points to WRs, so run this stud out there and thank me later.
PPR prediction: 18.4 pts
Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods: Okay, this is kind of cheating. But as one of my all-time favorite players, Joe Montana, once said about the Patriots’ pattern of edgy behavior: if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying. Word, Joe Cool. Detroit has one good CB (Darius Slay) and that’s it. And I suspect Slay shadows one of these two for the majority of the day. Whoever that unlucky buck is, Sit him. The other is 100% a Start this week. Cooks has been a target and yardage machine and Woods hasn’t dipped below 70 yards but once in 2018. For my money, I suspect Cooks sees more of Slay than Woods does, but I reserve the right to change my pick post-game. If you ain’t cheating, you ain’t… you get it.
PPR prediction vs. Slay: 7.6 pts
PPR prediction vs. DET’s other CBs: 1 million pts
Jarvis Landry: I’m not sure what new OC Freddie Kitchens has against Landry, but it must be something. That’s the only way to explain why a guy who looked like he was going to be the #1 WR in fantasy has become someone who’s not even a top 2 or 3 WR on your team. Landry has posted awful numbers in his last two games against two of the worst fantasy defenses in the league – that’s a bad sign. If I were you, I wouldn’t risk my playoff hopes hoping he wakes up this week in a subpar matchup.
PPR prediction: 7.2 pts
Eric Ebron: I still refuse to believe that Eric Ebron is a good TE – I’ve seen him stink up the joint one too many times. But I’ll cast my own beliefs aside this week in favor of your fantasy success. Ebron is the #3 TE in fantasy this year and he has the most TDs with 11, including a deuce (2 TDs) the last time he played this week’s opponent, Jacksonville. Combine these numbers with a QB like Andrew Luck and Ebron’s only competition for targets in Jack Doyle going down for the year, and you’re looking at a guy who’s as can’t-miss at the position as there is. Ick, it made me shudder just writing that.
PPR prediction: 14 pts
Greg Olsen: The TE position is as TD-dependent as there is, and Olsen exemplifies that to a ‘T.’ Unless he scores, he’s of no use to you. He didn’t score last week and I don’t think he will against Tampa, either, especially considering the emergence of D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey hogging virtually every red zone look. Olsen is a top-6 play for experts across the board, but that’s begging.
PPR prediction: 5.6 pts