Reminder: We do Start & Sit a little differently at Breakout Live. Avoiding the obvious starts & sits, we offer advice on the not-so-obvious matchups. You know, the ones that can actually make the difference between winning and losing.
So on Breakout Live Start & Sit, we’ll do two things:
- Give Start advice on mid-to-low tier players who are set up for a blowup week.
- Give Sit advice on mid-to-high tier players who are set up for a letdown.
Read on and reap the rewards a well-deserved playoff win for ROLLIN WITH MAHOMES or MORE THAN A THIELEN:
Lamar Jackson – It’s a bold move to start a rookie QB in the fantasy playoffs, but it’s also the kind of move that helps you move on to the next round. KC’s defense is far better at home than on the road, but they are susceptible to the run. That’s where Lamar will shine. Expect him to use his legs all day and if I were you, I’d ride those pistons until the wheels fall off.
PPR prediction: 23 pts
Kirk Cousins – I’m seeing Cousins in the high teens/low-20s in composite rankings this week, and that’s way off in my opinion. Yes, he was bad last week in New England, but he’s also thrown at least 2 TDs in 8 of 12 games and I think the matchup with Seattle could be a sneaky shootout. The Seahawks aren’t what they once were against the pass (19th) and they just let Nick Mullens throw for 414 yards last week. Cousins has a real shot to go big this week.
PPR prediction: 25.6 pts
Cam Newton – Cam’s throwing shoulder is not right and it’s not a very well-kept secret. He has yet to throw in practice this week, and anyone who’s seen him throw at all over the last month knows he’s hurt. The Browns know it too, and they’ll take advantage as one of the most opportunistic and turnover-hungry defenses in the league. Now is not the time to start Cam and hope for the best.
Prediction: 14.5 pts
Andrew Luck – The Colts put up a big, fat donut last week vs. the Jags, and Luck offered no fantasy value whatsoever despite chucking the rock 52 times. Things won’t be that dire this week, but Houston’s defense has been as good as any during their 9-game win streak. I’m guessing you won’t be able to stomach sitting Luck in a playoff game, but you better hope the rest of your team can pick up his slack.
Prediction: 16.4 pts
Lamar Miller – Houston’s running game was mostly left for dead early in the season, but it has come alive in recent weeks and Miller has been the main beneficiary. He’s got four 100-yard games in his last 6 and he’s peaking at the perfect time for his fantasy owners. Plus, the Colts are very generous to RBs catching the ball out of the backfield, so there’s an added bonus attached to Miller this week.
PPR prediction: 19.2 pts
Austin Ekeler – Ekeler was a bit of a disappointment last week in his first start, and it was a bit concerning to see Justin Jackson get meaningful carries and do well with them. No need to worry this week, though. Jackson will still eat into Ekeler’s share, but the matchup is ripe vs. a Bengals team that has basically given up on their season.
PPR prediction: 17.1 pts
Joe Mixon – Mixon is the clear-cut lead back in Cincy and a lot of experts are high on him this week. Not me. The Bengals will be playing from behind all day against the Chargers, and they’ll likely key on Mixon because he’s really the only good player Cincy has left. He’s due for a dud.
PPR prediction: 8.3 pts
Tarik Cohen – Cohen exploded for 156 receiving yards last week on 12 catches (and an absurd 14 targets), but don’t forget, that was with Chase Daniel checking down all day. Mitchell Trubisky is back this week, and he’s been far less friendly to Cohen, amounting to just 107 yards in the last 3 games they’ve played together. In other words, don’t bet on another blow-up here, my friends.
PPR prediction: 11.2 pts
Adam Humphries – Here’s a dude who’s single-handedly helped a lot of fantasy owners get into the playoffs, so might as well ride the wave through the playoffs as well. Humphries has scored a TD in 3 straight, and he’s scored 5 times in 5 weeks. Jameis Winston loves him, DeSean Jackson will be out again, and the matchup is as good as it gets vs. the Saints’ 32nd-ranked passing D. Run him out there with confidence this week.
PPR prediction: 20.9 pts
Courtland Sutton – Say hello to the Broncos’ new #1 WR. Emmanuel Sanders is done for the year, so it’s time for Sutton to show what he can do as the lead dog. He’ll likely draw Richard Sherman for much of the day, but Sherm isn’t who he used to be and Sutton should be able to use his size to get whatever he wants. He’s a sneaky good play.
PPR prediction: 17.4 pts
T.Y Hilton – It’s no guarantee that Hilton suits up on Sunday, but he did practice for the first time on Friday. Even still, let me save you some time: sit him. Although he’s been Andrew Luck’s #1 option in the pass game and is garnering consistent usage, this will be a tough matchup going against Kareem Jackson and the surging Texans defense. You could do worse than Hilton at your flex or mayyybe WR2, but you could also do better this week.
PPR prediction: 11.4 pts
Tyreek Hill – This one’s scary because of Hill’s potential to turn a bad game into a big one in a split second, but I’m all-in on this being a really tough matchup for the Chiefs. The Ravens give up the 2nd fewest passing yards in the league and Sammy Watkins being listed as doubtful actually hurts Hill, as he’ll likely draw even more attention from Baltimore’s suffocating secondary. It’s playoff time, people. Can’t pull any punches now.
PPR prediction: 10.2 pts
David Njoku – Even with Jarvis Landry on the field, Njoku has become Baker Mayfield’s favorite target. Njoku has gone over 50 yards in 6 of his last 8 games. That kind of production can’t be ignored, and now he gets a susceptible Carolina defense who’ve allowed the 3rd most points to TEs this season.
PPR prediction: 15.5 pts
Cameron Brate – On paper this looks like a pretty good matchup for Brate vs. a beatable Saints defense. But dig a little deeper and you’ll see that the Saints have only given up 1 TD to TEs this year. As is so often the case with this position in fantasy, Brate is a complete TD-or-Bust play… and I predict the latter.
PPR prediction: 4.5 pts